Africa has several island nations. These are Madagascar, the Comoros, Mauritius, Seychelles, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Cape Verde. Of these, Madagascar is well known: known for its natural beauty, rare species of flora and fauna, for its prominent location, and for its never ending spate of political intrigues and machinations. Things happen here that makes many African countries look like the Vatican’s sister city. Antananarivo, the capital city, is a daggerhouse. Since gaining independence from France in 1960, Madagascar has been beset by political, economic and legal problems. Assassinations, treachery, and treasonable acts are common here.
In recent weeks, we have witnessed another of such commotion play itself out. The Cable News Network (CNN) is reporting that “after two months of political turmoil, former opposition leader Andry Rajoelina was inaugurated… The country’s political crisis ended earlier this week, after then-President Marc Ravalomanana ceded power to the military, which handed over government control to Rajoelina, the former mayor of Antananarivo… Rajoelina declared himself president of a transitional government, and was confirmed by Madagascar’s high court.” In all of these, what has baffled many observers is the fact that the new president, Andry Rajoelina, is only 34 years old.
CNN, BBC and several media outlets are reporting that the new president is six years shy of the age required for ascension. In order words, Rajoelina is not fit to serve as the President of Madagascar. This being the case, one of three things is bound to happen: (1) the constitution may be amendment to accommodate the new president; (2) there may be a “revelation” which puts his age at or over forty; or (3) the age question may become moot. Strange and more bizarre things have happened in African and third world politics. How the military and political elites settles this will not surprise observers of the continent’s political landscape.
This illegality will be explained away and accepted. There is a second illegality. The first, as mentioned, is the breach of constitutional requirement in terms of age; and the second is the manner in which the former president, Marc Ravalomanana, was removed. It is hard to think of what happened in Antananarivo as anything less than a coup. This was a coup – a coup undertaken on behalf of a group that’s yet to make itself public. As unstable as Madagascar is, it is almost unimaginable to have things play out as they have.
For a while, the feeling was that military coups d’etat was a thing of the past. After all, this was continent that, between 1952 and 1989, witnessed over a hundred and fifty successful coups, attempted coups, and counter-coups. Samuel Decalo’s Coups and Army Rule in Africa: Studies in Military Style and Ruth First’s The Barrel of a Gun: Political Power in Africa and the Coup D’état are two of several illuminating works on the coup phenomenon. Others — including Samuel Huntington, Mike Hough, Pieter Esterhuysen, and Morris Janowitz — have all done excellent work on the theory and practice of coups.
Military Coup d’etat, as Harvey Kebschull noted, is a speedily executed extralegal takeover of government by a conspiratorial group, usually consisting of military officers who use force or the threat of force to remove the government and assume power for itself. There are several explanations for coups, but overall, coups happen because of a mix of political, economic, ethnic, cultural, military and personal dynamics. They can be bloody, and generally causes discontinuity in policy formulation and implementation.
Ordinarily, one would say that it is not enough for the Southern African Development Community group to say it “completely rejected the legitimacy” of Rajoelina or for the African Union to suspend Madagascar’s membership. A clearer message should be sent to Antananarivo that this coup and the age-related breach of the constitution will not stand. It must not stand. South Africa, Mozambique, and Nigeria should be more vocal. The irony here is that because other coupists have gotten away with their illegalities, more and more aspiring power centers keep usurping the rule of law. Neither the African Union nor any other regional or sub-regional body has the power or the wherewithal to punish coupits.
And in fact, African states have no way of policing themselves and each other. Also, the majority of African leaders do not have the moral authority to condemn power usurpers. Most got to power through extralegal means. What’s more, the African Presidencies is like an old boys club: illegalities are accepted so long as the fallouts are not too severe. It is why no more than six African leaders will stand on the public podium to condemn Antananarivo. Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe got away with killing and maiming his people, and also got away dismantling his country; and so did Mwai Kibaki of Kenya. Ethiopia is a killing field and no one can do anything about it, just as no one was able sanction Obasanjo for his crimes and incompetence.
Indeed one of the major problems of the continent is that there are very few voices of courage and reason left. There are very few governments with the moral backing to condemn Antananarivo for this constitutional breach. Therefore, after several days or weeks of negotiations, the illegality of Andry Rajoelina (and his backers) will be legalized. South Africa and many other countries will relent, and so will the African Union. Publicly or privately, the United States, France and other global powers will look the other way, and business will resume until another thug fights his way into power. In less than six months, Madagascar will be back in the news again. And again!
About the Author
Sabella Ogbobode Abidde, a PhD Candidate & SYLFF Fellow, is with Howard University Washington, DC. His dissertation is on violence, terrorism and underdevelopment as it relates to the Niger Delta. He can be reached at: Sabidde@gmail.com.